By EcoBusinessNews Staff
As President Donald Trump begins his second term in the White House, the clean energy sector is bracing for a sharp pivot in federal energy priorities. While solar and wind are expected to face renewed headwinds, it is hydrogen — long touted as the “fuel of the future” — that may be entering its most precarious chapter yet.
In a recent Barron’s article, Avi Salzman summed up the stakes:
“Several energy sources face a perilous future under President Donald Trump, but none seem to be on the brink of a make-or-break moment quite like hydrogen.”
Hydrogen has been at the center of the Biden administration’s clean industrial strategy. Backed by billions in funding from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), hydrogen hubs were slated to become the backbone of a decarbonized manufacturing and transportation sector. But now, that momentum is uncertain — and the entire ecosystem may hinge on how policy, economics, and industry advocacy unfold in the coming months.
⚡ The Promise of Hydrogen: Cleaner Power, Heavier Loads
Hydrogen is a zero-carbon fuel when produced with renewable electricity — commonly called green hydrogen. Its unique value lies in:
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- Decarbonizing hard-to-electrify sectors like steel, cement, chemicals, and shipping
- Fuel cell vehicle infrastructure for trucks, buses, and trains
- Energy storage and grid balancing for renewable-heavy regions
Countries like Japan, Germany, and South Korea have placed hydrogen at the center of their long-term energy strategies. In the U.S., companies like Plug Power ($PLUG), Bloom Energy ($BE), and FuelCell Energy ($FCEL) have spent years developing electrolyzer technology, fuel cells, and integrated systems to support this clean fuel transition.
🏛️ The Political Reversal: Trump’s Return and the Risk to Hydrogen Hubs
The Biden-era hydrogen strategy focused on:
- $7 billion in regional hydrogen hub funding
- A $3/kg tax credit (45V) for clean hydrogen production
- Cross-agency coordination for hydrogen infrastructure
Now, the Trump administration’s early energy signals suggest a rollback or redirection:
- Possible defunding or reallocation of DOE hydrogen hub awards
- Reevaluation of clean hydrogen tax credits
- Favoring natural gas, coal, and fossil hydrogen over renewables
- Scaling back clean industrial mandates and incentives
While nothing is official yet, policy uncertainty alone can chill private investment. With billions already committed and hundreds of jobs expected from hydrogen hub buildouts, companies and state energy offices are scrambling to assess how far Trump may go in reversing these initiatives.
💰 Wall Street’s Watchlist: Public Companies in the Crosshairs
For investors and analysts, hydrogen is no longer a moonshot — it’s a high-stakes sector. The following publicly traded companies are heavily exposed to U.S. hydrogen policy shifts:
🔹 Plug Power Inc. (PLUG)
A leader in hydrogen fuel cells and electrolyzers, Plug is banking on hydrogen hub deployment and tax credits to scale its green hydrogen production. Shares are highly sensitive to policy news.
🔹 Bloom Energy Corp. (BE)
Known for its solid oxide fuel cells, Bloom is transitioning into electrolyzers and energy platforms. Its partnerships with utilities and global customers depend on stable U.S. policy.
🔹 FuelCell Energy Inc. (FCEL)
With tech in both hydrogen and carbon capture, FuelCell is betting on decarbonized industrial zones. Hydrogen hubs were key to its project pipeline.
🔹 Air Products & Chemicals (APD)
A global industrial gas giant, Air Products is heavily invested in blue and green hydrogen. Its North American strategy may adjust if tax credits weaken.
🔹 Cummins Inc. (CMI)
An engine manufacturer now building hydrogen fuel cell systems and electrolyzers, Cummins is a major hydrogen hardware player in trucking and transit.
Other names to watch include Ballard Power ($BLDP), Nikola ($NKLA), Linde ($LIN), and Chart Industries ($GTLS) — all of whom stand to gain or lose depending on the fate of the hydrogen agenda.
🌎 The Global Hydrogen Race Won’t Stop
Even if the U.S. slows down, global momentum for hydrogen continues:
- Europe’s REPowerEU aims for 20 million tons of renewable hydrogen annually by 2030.
- China has rolled out hydrogen development zones and aggressive vehicle targets.
- Australia and the Middle East are investing billions into green hydrogen exports.
If U.S. federal support wanes, domestic companies may redirect efforts to international markets — though this often adds cost and complexity.
🚛 The Industrial Sector Pushes Back
It’s not just clean energy advocates sounding the alarm. Major industrial and transportation stakeholders — including the American Trucking Association, heavy manufacturing coalitions, and port authorities — see hydrogen as vital to maintaining competitiveness.
In fact, many Republican-led states like Texas, Louisiana, and Utah are home to hydrogen hubs and related job pipelines. Pulling back support could spark intra-party friction, especially as clean energy job creation continues to poll well with voters.
🔮 What’s Next: The Fight to Keep the Hydrogen Vision Alive
Hydrogen’s fate in the U.S. is no longer just about technology — it’s about narrative, politics, and market confidence. The next six months will be crucial:
- Will DOE hydrogen hub contracts be honored?
- Will the 45V hydrogen tax credit remain intact?
- Will market participants continue investing in U.S. electrolyzer and fuel cell capacity?
If the answer is yes, hydrogen may not just survive — it may thrive. If not, we could see a chilling effect across a sector that was just beginning to scale.
✅ Conclusion: A Make-or-Break Moment
There’s a reason Avi Salzman called hydrogen the most vulnerable of clean energy technologies under Trump 2.0 — it’s still early-stage, capital intensive, and reliant on strong policy support.
But hydrogen also represents a long-term opportunity to transform heavy industry, freight, and long-duration storage. That opportunity doesn’t go away. It just shifts — and possibly moves overseas.
As always, EcoBusinessNews will continue tracking the evolution of clean hydrogen, the policy battles in D.C., and what they mean for the economy, the environment, and investors.
⚠️ Is the 30% Hydrogen Tax Credit at Risk? The “Big Bill” Could Reshape Clean Energy Incentives in 2025
As we head toward a pivotal moment in U.S. tax policy, one looming question is top of mind for investors, developers, and climate advocates alike:
Will the 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for hydrogen survive the 2025 “Big Bill”?
The short answer: Not necessarily. The future of this powerful clean energy incentive is uncertain, especially if federal leadership changes or if Congress becomes more hostile to green energy investments.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of what’s at stake.
🧾 What Is the “Big Bill”?
“The Big Bill” refers to the major tax legislation expected in 2025, when large portions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are set to expire.
While much of the debate will focus on income tax rates and corporate taxation, clean energy credits — especially those created under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) — are expected to come under intense scrutiny.
This includes:
- The 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for clean hydrogen infrastructure
- The 45V Hydrogen Production Credit, offering up to $3/kg of low-carbon hydrogen
- Bonus ITC “Adders” for domestic content, energy communities, and more
🎯 What’s at Risk for Hydrogen Projects?
✅ 1. Investment Tax Credit (ITC) – Section 48
- What it covers: 30% of capital costs for eligible hydrogen infrastructure — including electrolyzers, fueling stations, storage tanks, and related equipment.
- The risk: Could be reduced, repealed, or restructured to exclude certain technologies.
✅ 2. Hydrogen Production Credit – Section 45V
- What it provides: Up to $3/kg of hydrogen produced, tiered by lifecycle emissions (green hydrogen = highest tier).
- The risk: Lawmakers may seek to defund, delay, or tighten eligibility, especially for green hydrogen projects perceived as “expensive.”
✅ 3. Bonus ITC Adders
- Includes:
- +10% for Domestic Content
- +10% for Energy Communities
- +10% for Low-Income Projects
- The risk: These incentives could be cut to reduce costs, or politically weakened if domestic manufacturing policies shift.
🗳️ Political Outlook: What Happens Under a Trump Administration?
A potential second Trump term (or a Republican majority in Congress) could shift the momentum dramatically:
- Fossil fuels prioritized: Trump has voiced clear support for fossil energy over renewables.
- Climate skepticism: Expect a rollback of “green handouts” and a push for “energy independence” via oil, gas, and coal.
- IRA under fire: Republican proposals already target the repeal or defunding of key IRA tax credits.
That said, not all hydrogen is green, and not all red states are against it:
- Hydrogen hubs in Texas, Louisiana, and Utah could help preserve some funding via regional job creation and industrial growth arguments.
🧠 Strategic Takeaway for Hydrogen Developers
If you’re in hydrogen, here’s what to do now:
- Move quickly to lock in tax credits while they are still in place.
- Focus on projects that qualify for bonus adders (domestic content, energy communities).
- Strengthen partnerships with policymakers and advocacy groups — framing hydrogen as a jobs and national security solution.
- Prioritize low-carbon hydrogen pathways to remain eligible for the full $3/kg credit under 45V.
✅ Bottom Line: Hydrogen’s Federal Incentives Are Not Guaranteed
The 30% ITC for hydrogen — and its companion 45V credit — are powerful tools for scaling U.S. hydrogen infrastructure, but they face political headwinds.
Whether these credits remain intact will depend on:
- Who controls Congress and the White House after the 2024 elections
- How effectively hydrogen is positioned — as an economic engine or a climate expense
